Wednesday 6 February 2019

Bathurst Ruminations

The 2019 Liqui-Moly Bathurst 12-hours was a remarkable race – it would have been good to have been there. However, the coverage was excellent, so it was possible to follow the action from far away, and despite the virtual jet-lag, it was still possible to get a good flavour for the race.

It was particularly pleasing to see so little of the race disrupted by caution flags – only nine caution periods accounting for just 22 of the 312 completed laps (or 313 if you count the pace lap, which arguably you should, since that is when the timing for the 12 hours started). With some justification, much was made of the fact that driving standards were high, and serious incidents were few and far between. However, it should also be recognised that still there was 1h 48m of running behind the Safety Car.

Compare this to 19 Code-60 interventions for a total of 3h 57m for this year’s Dubai 24-hours and it is not that different (provided you divide by two to account for the different race lengths!). But at Dubai, there was little talk of how few caution periods there were – most people I spoke to were more eager to say that the number and frequency of the Code-60 periods were much more than they had expected (or wanted). In a way, I suppose this merely puts Bathurst in context – one really expects to have more cautions, so close are the walls and so tortuous is the track.

Another way to look at it is to consider that six of the nine pit stops made by the race winning Earl Bamber Motorsport-entered Porsche were made under green flag conditions. Certainly, that meant that strategy played a bigger role in this year’s race that it often does.

In both 2014 and 2012, there were also just nine safety car periods, and in 2012 those accounted also for just 22 laps. However, in 2012, there were only 25 starters, and only 8 of those were proper GT3 cars. In some ways, it is hardly surprising that they kept out of trouble, despite the atrocious weather that blighted that year’s race.

The only other occasion since then when there have been fewer than 40 starters was in 2016, when 36 cars started, 58% of which were GT3 class cars, and 27 laps were lost due to Safety Car periods. This year the race boasted 38 starters, two fewer than were initially expected, but 66% of them were GT3 cars. To me, there seems to be a pretty strong correlation between number of starters and number of Safety Car periods. Although to be fair, it depends as well on the mix between GT3 cars and the ‘others’.

Year Starters %age GT3 SC periods SC laps
2019 38 66% 9 22
2018 50 56% 16* 47
2017 51 61% 16 35
2016 36 58% 13 27
2015 50 54% 20 73
2014 40 30% 9 31
2013 53 34% 15 43
2012 25 32% 9 22
*In 2018, the race was terminated early with a red flag.

Note that in the calculation of the percentage of GT3 cars above, I have not accounted for whether the drivers were Pro or Am or a mixture of the two. Clearly, this also can influence matters. This year was the first that there were no GT3 cars driven only by amateur crews.

In any event, this year’s Bathurst 12 hours was a race to be savoured. The international aspect that the race has acquired in recent years was joined this year by an injection of youth. Matt Campbell (just 23 years of age) drove a storming stint after the final SC, moving from third to first in the final twenty minutes, passing first the Mercedes of Raffaele Marcielllo (at 24 years of age) and then the R-Motorsport Aston Martin in the hands of Jake Dennis (another 23-year old). But neither the Aston Martin nor the Porsche that were battling over the lead of the race at the end were really the quickest cars out there, although you would be forgiven for thinking so, based on that last frenetic hour.

The overall fastest lap of the race went to Josh Burdon in the no. 35 Nissan GT-R Nismo, at 2m 03.5382s, although this was almost two seconds slower than Shane Van Gisbergen achieved in during the 2016 race in the Tekno Autosports McLaren 650S.

The best average laps (looking at the best 20% of green laps) went to the two M-Sport Bentleys, the no. 107 being the quicker of the two. Mercedes, Audi, Ferrari and Nissan were all quicker, using this metric, than either the Aston Martin or the EBM Porsches. It should be noted that the difference between the GT3 field (as used by the wizards of BoP) was less than 0.5%, however, so I don’t think that any complaints are warranted.

Let’s look at some other numbers from Bathurst and compare them to Daytona and Dubai:
Dubai Daytona Bathurst
No of lead changes 15 50 30
No of cars that led 8 7 13
No of cars in 'top' class 13 11 15
Winner's average speed 136 km/h 154 km/h 162 km/h
No of starters 74 47 38
Cars outside 70% of winner's distance 24 (32%) 4 (9%) 13 (34%)
Cars within 5 mins of winner 1 2 7
Winning margin 1 lap 13.5s 3.4s

I present this data as it stands, without wanting to make any point in particular. You can read into it what you want. Certainly I am guilty of comparing apples with oranges – Daytona is for prototypes, Bathurst runs to a 12-hour duration, Dubai does not use Safety Cars – all this impacts the numbers shown, to varying degrees. Nevertheless, I found it interesting to compile, so I hope you find it interesting to read.

And to close, a couple of maverick thoughts. A lot of the appeal of endurance racing is the fact that it is multi-class racing. Different categories of cars racing at the same time on the same track – involved in different battles, but fighting on the same battlefield. Dubai this year had fewer non-GT3 cars than ever before, Bathurst too. The Spa 24 hours runs pretty much exclusively to GT3-specification cars (albeit with different grades of drivers) and has done for several years now. Personally, I don’t think this spoils the spectacle. It unquestionably changes the dynamic of the race; it changes the appeal and the spectator impact. It alters the way that teams and drivers have to approach matters of strategy.

But here we are in 2019 – things are anyway different in endurance racing from how they were thirty or forty years ago. Maybe there is a place for single-class endurance races? Not as a replacement for the multi-class ones, but as an addition.

And second, what about the “holy mantra” of a 24 hours race distance? I think Bathurst proves that you can have a perfectly good 12 hour race. There are more 24-hour races these days than ever there used to be in the past. I have argued before that having more events has the overall effect of devaluing the status of the individual event. I admit that there is something very special about staying up all night, experiencing the exhilaration of completing 24-hours non-stop racing and the fatigue that goes with it. But you can have too much of a good thing. Dubai, Daytona, Le Mans, Nürburgring, Spa, Portimao, Barcelona…it all gets a little too much.

Races of eight, ten, twelve or even eighteen hours all require strategy, fortitude, durability and consistency. And would provide race organisers with a little more variety with which to spice up their seasons.

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