Thursday 1 August 2013

The Spa 24 Hour Casino

Trying to follow a race when you're not actually there is never easy. But even if you are there, you really need to be able to see the track to stay on top of things. For the Spa 24 hours, John Hindhaugh, Martin Haven and I were following the race from afar, with invaluable information
being provided by Graham Goodwin, who was talking to us from media centre at Spa-Francorchamps. Although we managed to stay on top of things, (I think), there is nothing like trawling through the numbers afterwards, to make sure that the contemporary impressions are matched by the data.

Thanks to the kind folks from 'Blancpain Timing', a few days after the race, I managed to get hold of the data file which provided such analysis.

The first thing that I wanted to confirm was the impression that for the HTP Motorsports Mercedes SLS AMG and the Manthey Racing Porsche 911 GT3-R, Bernd Schneider and Patrick Pilet, respectively, were the outstanding drivers. Looking at single laps is often misleading, so in the table below, I show the average of the best 50 laps of each driver.
No. 84 HTP Mercedes
Driver
Average of best 50 laps
Schneider
2m 23.314s
Buhk
2m 23.621s
Götz
2m 23.848s

No. 150 Manthey Porsche
Driver
Average of best 50 laps
Pilet
2m 23.792s
Lietz
2m 23.963s
Lieb
2m 23.994s

This shows quite clearly, the contribution that each of the respective team's drivers made to their result. Looking at the time spent by each driver behind the wheel is also interesting:
No. 84 HTP Mercedes
Driver
Driving Time
No of Laps
Buhk
8h 17m 26s
205
Götz
6h 38m 05s
161
Schneider
8h 07m 27s
198

No. 150 Manthey Porsche 911
Driver
Driving Time
No of Laps
Lieb
8h 03m 49s
196
Lietz
7h 57m 02s
195
Pilet
7h 06m 09s
172

Note that the driving time does not include the time spent in the pits, which explains why the total does not add up to 24 hours (in case you were wondering)!

Another way of looking at average lap times is to take the time of a driver's stint and divide it by the number of laps completed. On this basis, let's look at the best full stint for each of the drivers of the no. 84 Mercedes and of the no. 150 Porsche.

No. 84 HTP Mercedes
Driver
Best Stint
Average lap time
Buhk
8:09am - 9:11am
2m 23.4s
Götz
5:10am - 6:12am
2m 23.8s
Schneider
1:54am - 2:57am
2m 24.2s


No. 150 Manthey Porsche 911
Driver
Best Stint
Average lap time
Lieb
9:27am - 10:32am
2m 23.8s
Lietz
10:34am - 11:39am
2m 23.8s
Pilet
8:23am - 9:25am
2m 23.9s

Somewhat surprisingly, both Schneider and Pilet are the slowest! Undoubtedly, Schneider's ability to set a quick time for a stint was compromised by the safety car periods during the fastest part of the race on Sunday morning. But perhaps also, although he and Pilet are quick when the track conditions allow, they are a little more cautious in the traffic? It's a theory, at least.

Another thing that was noticeable during the race was that the HTP Motorsport team was far more eager to have its drivers do double stints than Olaf Manthey's team was. Here are the longest stints done by each driver:

No. 84 HTP Mercedes
Driver
Driving Time
Driving Laps
Stint Time
Buhk
2h 07m 15s
52
3:00am - 5:07am
Götz
1h 51m 17s
44
5:10am -7:01am
Schneider
2h 08m 19s
52
6:56pm - 9:05pm

No. 150 Manthey Porsche 911
Driver
Driving Time
Driving Laps
Stint Time
Lieb
1h 04m 41s
27
9:27am - 10:32am
Lietz
1h 42m 36s
40
0:06am -1:48am
Pilet
1h 04m 14s
22
11:42am - 12:46am
Pilet
1h 03m 03s
26
6:40pm - 7:43pm

I have shown Pilet twice in the table because the 22-lap stint was partly behind the safety car, and although his 26-lap stint took less time, it is perhaps more relevant as a 'long stint'.

The other key to the Mercedes win was the speed with which the HTP mechanics changed the brakes at half distance. The Mercedes brake change was 1m 51s quicker than on the Porsche.

However, the amount of time spent in the pits for each car was as follows:
No
Car
Time Spent in pits
No of stops
84
HTP Mercedes SLS AMG
57m 11.467s
24
150
Manthey Porsche 911 GT3
53m 15.354s
23
2
Team WRT Audi R8 LMS
56m 08.677s
23

(Note that, for the purpose of this table, I have excluded Manthey's drive-through penalty.)

Arguments can no doubt be put forward from both Renaud Dufour (from HTP) and Olaf Manthey that they lost out due to safety car interventions, and it would be naïve to suggest that none of the five safety car periods had an impact on the race. Dufour had a strategy though and pitted on four of the five occasions that the safety car came out. The Porsche pitted only once when the safety car was out, but try as I might, I could not find conclusive evidence that either strategy was the correct (or the wrong) one.

It seemed to me a bit like betting on 'red' or 'black' at roulette - it is the best way of ensuring that you win something, but neither of them is better than the other: whether you win or not ultimately comes down to chance.

But it does seem to be clear that the key to the Mercedes win was its pace on the track. And also, that Schneider (who, don't forget, set the fastest lap of the race), was very ably supported by his two co-drivers. Oh yes, and the Manthey car had a misfire.

4 comments:

  1. Nice work!
    Would it be possible to upload the raw laptime file anywhere?

    Thanks,
    Tom

    ReplyDelete
  2. Congrats for your analysis that I just discover....but there was much more than betting behind the safety car stops... We can talk about that in private if you like.... R. Dufour

    ReplyDelete
  3. Renaud, I am sure there was much more than gambling. Your strategy was definitely strong. I would love to discuss further with you! Find me on Linked In.

    ReplyDelete
  4. Nice analysis !

    Just surprised you didn't mention the 911 has a big advantage in refuelling time. I think it can be the key element in explaining why the SLS needed to be faster than the 911 on track and stop under SC.

    Would love to get the raw laptime file too !

    Geronimo

    ReplyDelete